Harry Faulkner v Eamonn Price (Thu 14 Jun 2012)
Match won by Eamonn Price. Result: 14-16,12-15,10-15.
Starting level for
Harry Faulkner:
5,219, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Eamonn Price:
6,097, level confidence: 54%.
Eamonn Price to win as he is currently playing
17% better than Harry Faulkner.
Eamonn Price won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eamonn Price played
37% better than Harry Faulkner in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eamonn Price actually played at a level of
6,597 and Harry Faulkner at a level of
4,824. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eamonn Price changes to +7.6% and Harry Faulkner changes to -6.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eamonn Price becomes +2.9% and for Harry Faulkner becomes -2.8%.
Given Eamonn Price's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.4% has been applied to his level change.
Given Harry Faulkner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.7% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Eamonn Price is +1.7% and for Harry Faulkner is -1.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eamonn Price: 74%, Harry Faulkner: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eamonn Price: 68%, Harry Faulkner: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Harry Faulkner:
5,121, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Eamonn Price:
6,194, level confidence: 68%.