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Stephen Lloyd v Martin Harding (Mon 18 Jun 2012)

Match won by Stephen Lloyd. Result: 15-8,15-12,15-8.

Starting level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,512, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Martin Harding: 2,232, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Stephen Lloyd to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Martin Harding.

Stephen Lloyd won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Lloyd played 61% better than Martin Harding in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Lloyd actually played at a level of 3,002 and Martin Harding at a level of 1,868. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd changes to +18% and Martin Harding changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd becomes +7.3% and for Martin Harding becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd is +4.7% and for Martin Harding is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Lloyd: 71%, Martin Harding: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Lloyd: 59%, Martin Harding: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,627, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Martin Harding: 2,152, level confidence: 70%.