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Barry Sturgeon v Simon Maxen (Tue 09 Mar 2010)

Match won by Simon Maxen. Result: 15-7,11-15,6-15,15-17.

Starting level for Barry Sturgeon: 1,619, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Maxen: 1,855, level confidence: 65%.
Simon Maxen to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Barry Sturgeon.

Simon Maxen won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Maxen played 22% better than Barry Sturgeon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Maxen actually played at a level of 1,912 and Barry Sturgeon at a level of 1,571. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Maxen changes to +2.8% and Barry Sturgeon changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Maxen becomes +2.2% and for Barry Sturgeon becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Simon Maxen is +1.7% and for Barry Sturgeon is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Maxen: 80%, Barry Sturgeon: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Maxen: 78%, Barry Sturgeon: 91%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Barry Sturgeon: 1,596, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for Simon Maxen: 1,883, level confidence: 78%.