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Mark Dunn v Howard Hawkins (Tue 19 Jun 2012)

Match won by Mark Dunn. Result: 15-8,15-13,15-11.

Starting level for Mark Dunn: 2,485, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Howard Hawkins: 1,847, level confidence: 63%.
Mark Dunn to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Howard Hawkins.

Mark Dunn won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Dunn played 45% better than Howard Hawkins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Dunn actually played at a level of 2,583 and Howard Hawkins at a level of 1,777. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 3.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Dunn changes to +2.8% and Howard Hawkins changes to -3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Dunn becomes +2% and for Howard Hawkins becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Mark Dunn is +1.3% and for Howard Hawkins is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Dunn: 87%, Howard Hawkins: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Dunn: 84%, Howard Hawkins: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Dunn: 2,514, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Howard Hawkins: 1,814, level confidence: 76%.