Neil Houson v Kevin Ralfe (Tue 09 Mar 2010)
Match won by Neil Houson. Result: 13-15,15-7,9-15,15-10,15-5.
Starting level for
Neil Houson:
1,457, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Kevin Ralfe:
1,475, level confidence: 56%.
Kevin Ralfe to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Neil Houson.
Neil Houson won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Houson played
15% better than Kevin Ralfe in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Houson actually played at a level of
1,570 and Kevin Ralfe at a level of
1,369. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Houson changes to +7% and Kevin Ralfe changes to -7.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Houson becomes +4.2% and for Kevin Ralfe becomes -4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Neil Houson is +3.2% and for Kevin Ralfe is -3.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Houson: 79%, Kevin Ralfe: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Houson: 73%, Kevin Ralfe: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Neil Houson:
1,501, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Kevin Ralfe:
1,424, level confidence: 70%.