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Peter Newman v Richard Carr (Tue 19 Jun 2012)

Match won by Richard Carr. Result: 8-15,8-15,13-15.

Starting level for Peter Newman: 2,270, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Richard Carr: 2,374, level confidence: 70%.
Richard Carr to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Peter Newman.

Richard Carr won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Carr played 55% better than Peter Newman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Carr actually played at a level of 2,891 and Peter Newman at a level of 1,864. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Carr changes to +20% and Peter Newman changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Carr becomes +8.1% and for Peter Newman becomes -8.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Richard Carr is +5.3% and for Peter Newman is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Carr: 84%, Peter Newman: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Carr: 69%, Peter Newman: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Newman: 2,159, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Richard Carr: 2,496, level confidence: 69%.