Chris Holder v Bob Woollard (Tue 09 Mar 2010)
Match won by Bob Woollard. Result: 4-15,13-15,11-15.
Starting level for
Chris Holder:
587, level confidence: 40%.
Starting level for
Bob Woollard:
875, level confidence: 65%.
Bob Woollard to win as he is currently playing
49% better than Chris Holder.
Bob Woollard won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bob Woollard played
61% better than Chris Holder in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bob Woollard actually played at a level of
909 and Chris Holder at a level of
565. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 3.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bob Woollard changes to +2% and Chris Holder changes to -3.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bob Woollard becomes +2% and for Chris Holder becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Bob Woollard is +1.5% and for Chris Holder is -2.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bob Woollard: 80%, Chris Holder: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bob Woollard: 77%, Chris Holder: 61%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Holder:
573, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Bob Woollard:
887, level confidence: 77%.