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Steve Hambling v Tim Oram (Tue 19 Jun 2012)

Match won by Steve Hambling. Result: 15-6,13-15,15-11,11-15,15-12.

Starting level for Steve Hambling: 1,687, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Tim Oram: 1,339, level confidence: 68%.
Steve Hambling to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Tim Oram.

Steve Hambling won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Hambling played 12% better than Tim Oram in this match.

As Steve Hambling has played below his allowed range at 1,556, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Hambling would normally have been playing at level 1,658 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Oram played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Hambling changes to -3.6% and Tim Oram changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Hambling becomes -2.7% and for Tim Oram becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Steve Hambling is -1.7% and for Tim Oram is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Hambling: 82%, Tim Oram: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Hambling: 77%, Tim Oram: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Hambling: 1,656, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Tim Oram: 1,366, level confidence: 78%.