David Gandolfo v Ian Blows (Tue 19 Jun 2012)
Match won by David Gandolfo. Result: 11-15,15-7,15-10,15-8.
Starting level for
David Gandolfo:
1,912, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ian Blows:
1,401, level confidence: 63%.
David Gandolfo to win as he is currently playing
36% better than Ian Blows.
David Gandolfo won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Gandolfo played
30% better than Ian Blows in this match.
In this case, David Gandolfo played at level 1,837 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Gandolfo would normally have been playing at level 1,854 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Blows played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Gandolfo changes to 0% and Ian Blows changes to +0.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Gandolfo becomes 0% and for Ian Blows becomes +0.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for David Gandolfo is 0% and for Ian Blows is +0.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Gandolfo: 93%, Ian Blows: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Gandolfo: 90%, Ian Blows: 78%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for David Gandolfo:
1,909, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Ian Blows:
1,405, level confidence: 78%.