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Gavin Bone v Michael Broadbent (Tue 19 Jun 2012)

Match won by Michael Broadbent. Result: 11-15,10-15,8-15.

Starting level for Gavin Bone: 1,010, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Broadbent: 1,432, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Michael Broadbent to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Gavin Bone.

Michael Broadbent won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Broadbent played 55% better than Gavin Bone in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Broadbent actually played at a level of 1,498 and Gavin Bone at a level of 966. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent changes to +3.3% and Gavin Bone changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent becomes +2.7% and for Gavin Bone becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Michael Broadbent is +1.8% and for Gavin Bone is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Broadbent: 92%, Gavin Bone: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Broadbent: 88%, Gavin Bone: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gavin Bone: 987, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Michael Broadbent: 1,455, level confidence: 88%.