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Mat Bowyer v Lauren Selby (Thu 11 Mar 2010)

Match won by Mat Bowyer. Result: 13-15,11-15,15-9,15-10,15-6.

Starting level for Mat Bowyer: 1,567, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Lauren Selby: 1,541, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Mat Bowyer to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Lauren Selby.

Mat Bowyer won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mat Bowyer played 14% better than Lauren Selby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mat Bowyer actually played at a level of 1,658 and Lauren Selby at a level of 1,456. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mat Bowyer changes to +5.8% and Lauren Selby changes to -4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mat Bowyer becomes +3.6% and for Lauren Selby becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Mat Bowyer is +2.7% and for Lauren Selby is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mat Bowyer: 75%, Lauren Selby: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mat Bowyer: 71%, Lauren Selby: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mat Bowyer: 1,607, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Lauren Selby: 1,503, level confidence: 80%.