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Andy Russell v Steve Barlow (Thu 11 Mar 2010)

Match won by Andy Russell. Result: 15-8,5-15,18-16,15-7.

Starting level for Andy Russell: 2,509, level confidence: 33%.
Starting level for Steve Barlow: 2,193, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Andy Russell to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Steve Barlow.

Andy Russell won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Russell played 22% better than Steve Barlow in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Russell actually played at a level of 2,588 and Steve Barlow at a level of 2,126. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Russell changes to +3% and Steve Barlow changes to -1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Russell becomes +2.1% and for Steve Barlow becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Andy Russell is +1.6% and for Steve Barlow is -0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Russell: 58%, Steve Barlow: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Russell: 56%, Steve Barlow: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Russell: 2,545, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Steve Barlow: 2,174, level confidence: 85%.