Peter Iszatt v Nick Davis (Wed 20 Jun 2012)
Match won by Nick Davis. Result: 11-15,4-15,9-15.
Starting level for
Peter Iszatt:
1,264, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nick Davis:
1,650, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Nick Davis to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Peter Iszatt.
Nick Davis won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Davis played
88% better than Peter Iszatt in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Davis actually played at a level of
1,977 and Peter Iszatt at a level of
1,055. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Davis changes to +14% and Peter Iszatt changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Davis becomes +6.9% and for Peter Iszatt becomes -9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Nick Davis is +4.5% and for Peter Iszatt is -5.6%.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Peter Iszatt is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Davis: 92%, Peter Iszatt: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Davis: 77%, Peter Iszatt: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Peter Iszatt:
1,202, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Nick Davis:
1,721, level confidence: 77%.