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Anthony Clifford v Sid Newbon (Wed 20 Jun 2012)

Match won by Anthony Clifford. Result: 15-12,15-8,15-10.

Starting level for Anthony Clifford: 1,204, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sid Newbon: 1,060, level confidence: 63%.
Anthony Clifford to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Sid Newbon.

Anthony Clifford won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Clifford played 52% better than Sid Newbon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Clifford actually played at a level of 1,391 and Sid Newbon at a level of 917. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Clifford changes to +10.9% and Sid Newbon changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Clifford becomes +6.4% and for Sid Newbon becomes -8.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Anthony Clifford is +4.1% and for Sid Newbon is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Clifford: 92%, Sid Newbon: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Clifford: 79%, Sid Newbon: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Clifford: 1,252, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Sid Newbon: 1,008, level confidence: 69%.