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Mike Byrne v Dan Easton (Wed 20 Jun 2012)

Match won by Dan Easton. Result: 7-15,15-11,15-12,14-16,10-15.

Starting level for Mike Byrne: 1,272, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dan Easton: 1,813, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Dan Easton to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Mike Byrne.

Dan Easton won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Easton played 11% better than Mike Byrne in this match.

As Dan Easton has played below his allowed range at 1,527, his level reduction is 8.3% before damping. On the assumption that Dan Easton would normally have been playing at level 1,744 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Byrne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.9% and 9.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Easton changes to -6.9% and Mike Byrne changes to +9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Easton becomes -4% and for Mike Byrne becomes +5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Dan Easton is -2.5% and for Mike Byrne is +3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Easton: 90%, Mike Byrne: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Easton: 80%, Mike Byrne: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Byrne: 1,315, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Dan Easton: 1,766, level confidence: 80%.