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Paul Romagnoli v Shola Bello (Wed 20 Jun 2012)

Match won by Paul Romagnoli. Result: 11-15,15-13,15-9,12-15,15-9.

Starting level for Paul Romagnoli: 1,526, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shola Bello: 1,428, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Paul Romagnoli to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Shola Bello.

Paul Romagnoli won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Romagnoli played 10% better than Shola Bello in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Romagnoli actually played at a level of 1,551 and Shola Bello at a level of 1,405. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Romagnoli changes to +1.6% and Shola Bello changes to -1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Romagnoli becomes +1.3% and for Shola Bello becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Paul Romagnoli is +0.9% and for Shola Bello is -0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Romagnoli: 86%, Shola Bello: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Romagnoli: 84%, Shola Bello: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Romagnoli: 1,537, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Shola Bello: 1,414, level confidence: 88%.