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Harry Faulkner v Keith Timms (Thu 21 Jun 2012)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 15-9,15-12,11-15,9-15,11-15.

Starting level for Harry Faulkner: 5,122, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keith Timms: 5,425, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Harry Faulkner.

Keith Timms won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 10% better than Harry Faulkner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Timms actually played at a level of 5,517 and Harry Faulkner at a level of 5,036. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to +1.6% and Harry Faulkner changes to -1.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes +0.9% and for Harry Faulkner becomes -1%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.3% has been applied to his level change.

Given Harry Faulkner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is +0.6% and for Harry Faulkner is -0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 84%, Harry Faulkner: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 83%, Harry Faulkner: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Faulkner: 5,083, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Keith Timms: 5,449, level confidence: 83%.