Emma Booth v Hilary Birt (Mon 15 Mar 2010)
Match won by Hilary Birt. Result: 15-7,12-15,15-11,13-15,11-15.
Starting level for
Emma Booth:
143, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Hilary Birt:
188, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Hilary Birt to win as she is currently playing
31% better than Emma Booth.
Hilary Birt won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if she was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hilary Birt played
6% better than Emma Booth in this match.
As Hilary Birt has played below her allowed range at 165, her level reduction is 8.2% before damping. On the assumption that Hilary Birt would normally have been playing at level 183 (based on typical behaviour), Emma Booth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 8.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hilary Birt changes to -5.7% and Emma Booth changes to +8.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hilary Birt becomes -4.4% and for Emma Booth becomes +5.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Hilary Birt is -3.3% and for Emma Booth is +4.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hilary Birt: 86%, Emma Booth: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hilary Birt: 78%, Emma Booth: 70%.
Final level for Emma Booth:
149, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Hilary Birt:
182, level confidence: 78%.