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Heather Earle v Emma Elkington (Mon 15 Mar 2010)

Match won by Emma Elkington. Result: 9-15,12-15,15-17.

Starting level for Heather Earle: 121, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Emma Elkington: 134, level confidence: 62%.
Emma Elkington to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Heather Earle.

Emma Elkington won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emma Elkington played 39% better than Heather Earle in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emma Elkington actually played at a level of 150 and Heather Earle at a level of 108. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emma Elkington changes to +11% and Heather Earle changes to -9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emma Elkington becomes +7% and for Heather Earle becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Emma Elkington is +5.3% and for Heather Earle is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emma Elkington: 79%, Heather Earle: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emma Elkington: 70%, Heather Earle: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Heather Earle: 118, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Emma Elkington: 141, level confidence: 70%.