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Kirsten Morley v Rachel Foster (Mon 15 Mar 2010)

Match won by Rachel Foster. Result: 5-15,4-15,5-15.

Starting level for Kirsten Morley: 157, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rachel Foster: 269, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Rachel Foster to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Kirsten Morley.

Rachel Foster won all of the games and 76% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 221% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rachel Foster played 221% better than Kirsten Morley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rachel Foster actually played at a level of 368 and Kirsten Morley at a level of 115. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rachel Foster changes to +25% and Kirsten Morley changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rachel Foster becomes +13.5% and for Kirsten Morley becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Rachel Foster is +10.2% and for Kirsten Morley is -10.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Kirsten Morley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rachel Foster: 94%, Kirsten Morley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rachel Foster: 68%, Kirsten Morley: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kirsten Morley: 149, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Rachel Foster: 295, level confidence: 68%.