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Louisa Dalwood v Claudia Smith (Mon 15 Mar 2010)

Match won by Claudia Smith. Result: 9-15,5-15,8-15.

Starting level for Louisa Dalwood: 234, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Claudia Smith: 355, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Claudia Smith to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Louisa Dalwood.

Claudia Smith won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Claudia Smith played 105% better than Louisa Dalwood in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Claudia Smith actually played at a level of 412 and Louisa Dalwood at a level of 202. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Claudia Smith changes to +9.9% and Louisa Dalwood changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Claudia Smith becomes +6.4% and for Louisa Dalwood becomes -7.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Claudia Smith is +4.8% and for Louisa Dalwood is -5.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Louisa Dalwood is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Claudia Smith: 86%, Louisa Dalwood: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Claudia Smith: 74%, Louisa Dalwood: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Louisa Dalwood: 227, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Claudia Smith: 372, level confidence: 74%.