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Jordan Ryan v Richard Carr (Tue 26 Jun 2012)

Match won by Richard Carr. Result: 8-15,12-15,4-15.

Starting level for Jordan Ryan: 1,954, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Richard Carr: 2,494, level confidence: 67%.
Richard Carr to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Jordan Ryan.

Richard Carr won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Carr played 88% better than Jordan Ryan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Carr actually played at a level of 3,023 and Jordan Ryan at a level of 1,612. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Carr changes to +17% and Jordan Ryan changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Carr becomes +6.9% and for Jordan Ryan becomes -8.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Richard Carr is +4.5% and for Jordan Ryan is -5.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Carr: 82%, Jordan Ryan: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Carr: 67%, Jordan Ryan: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jordan Ryan: 1,858, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Richard Carr: 2,602, level confidence: 67%.