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Matt Inglis v Jim Murphy (Tue 26 Jun 2012)

Match won by Matt Inglis. Result: 15-6,15-4,15-10.

Starting level for Matt Inglis: 2,143, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Jim Murphy: 740, level confidence: 13%.
Matt Inglis to win as he is currently playing 190% better than Jim Murphy.

Matt Inglis won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Inglis played 125% better than Jim Murphy in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matt Inglis was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,151 and 2,143 without affecting his level.

In this case, Matt Inglis played at level 1,665 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Jim Murphy is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Inglis: 77%, Jim Murphy: 37%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Inglis: 68%, Jim Murphy: 32%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Inglis: 2,140, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Jim Murphy: 739, level confidence: 32%.