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Chris Lynam v Joseph Green (Tue 26 Jun 2012)

Match won by Joseph Green. Result: 12-15,12-15,11-15.

Starting level for Chris Lynam: 2,555, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Joseph Green: 4,240, level confidence: 61%.
Joseph Green to win as he is currently playing 66% better than Chris Lynam.

Joseph Green won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joseph Green played 37% better than Chris Lynam in this match.

As Joseph Green has played below his allowed range at 3,539, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Joseph Green would normally have been playing at level 3,941 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Lynam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joseph Green changes to -0.7% and Chris Lynam changes to +4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joseph Green becomes -0.4% and for Chris Lynam becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Joseph Green is 0% and for Chris Lynam is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joseph Green: 78%, Chris Lynam: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joseph Green: 71%, Chris Lynam: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Lynam: 2,593, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Joseph Green: 4,222, level confidence: 71%.