Neil Houson v Carl Noffki (Tue 16 Mar 2010)
Match won by Neil Houson. Result: 10-15,15-11,15-7,15-10.
Starting level for
Neil Houson:
1,501, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Carl Noffki:
1,045, level confidence: 61%.
Neil Houson to win as he is currently playing
44% better than Carl Noffki.
Neil Houson won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Houson played
26% better than Carl Noffki in this match.
As Neil Houson has played below his allowed range at 1,343, his level reduction is 2% before damping. On the assumption that Neil Houson would normally have been playing at level 1,441 (based on typical behaviour), Carl Noffki played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 3.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Houson changes to -1.4% and Carl Noffki changes to +3.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Houson becomes -1.2% and for Carl Noffki becomes +3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Neil Houson is -0.9% and for Carl Noffki is +2.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Houson: 84%, Carl Noffki: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Houson: 79%, Carl Noffki: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Neil Houson:
1,485, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Carl Noffki:
1,070, level confidence: 73%.