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Karl Fenwick v Karl Pyle (Tue 26 Jun 2012)

Match won by Karl Pyle. Result: 17-19,4-15,15-6,14-16.

Starting level for Karl Fenwick: 1,296, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karl Pyle: 1,783, level confidence: 65%.
Karl Pyle to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Karl Fenwick.

Karl Pyle won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karl Pyle played 21% better than Karl Fenwick in this match.

As Karl Pyle has played below his allowed range at 1,608, his level reduction is 2.8% before damping. On the assumption that Karl Pyle would normally have been playing at level 1,726 (based on typical behaviour), Karl Fenwick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karl Pyle changes to -2.4% and Karl Fenwick changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karl Pyle becomes -1.9% and for Karl Fenwick becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Karl Pyle is -1.2% and for Karl Fenwick is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karl Pyle: 80%, Karl Fenwick: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karl Pyle: 75%, Karl Fenwick: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karl Fenwick: 1,320, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Karl Pyle: 1,759, level confidence: 75%.