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Guy Hessing v Craig Kirby (Tue 16 Mar 2010)

Match won by Guy Hessing. Result: 15-10,15-10,15-8.

Starting level for Guy Hessing: 1,169, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Craig Kirby: 1,200, level confidence: 59%.
Craig Kirby to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Guy Hessing.

Guy Hessing won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Guy Hessing played 61% better than Craig Kirby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Guy Hessing actually played at a level of 1,501 and Craig Kirby at a level of 934. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Guy Hessing changes to +23% and Craig Kirby changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Guy Hessing becomes +11.6% and for Craig Kirby becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Guy Hessing is +8.7% and for Craig Kirby is -9.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Craig Kirby is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Guy Hessing: 85%, Craig Kirby: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Guy Hessing: 66%, Craig Kirby: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Guy Hessing: 1,269, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Craig Kirby: 1,141, level confidence: 60%.