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Dave Levy v Tom Lo (Tue 16 Mar 2010)

Match won by Tom Lo. Result: 4-15,7-15,7-15.

Starting level for Dave Levy: 1,134, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Tom Lo: 1,845, level confidence: 52%.
Tom Lo to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Dave Levy.

Tom Lo won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Lo played 150% better than Dave Levy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Lo actually played at a level of 2,287 and Dave Levy at a level of 915. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Lo changes to +18% and Dave Levy changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Lo becomes +8.1% and for Dave Levy becomes -8.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Tom Lo is +6.1% and for Dave Levy is -6.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dave Levy is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Lo: 72%, Dave Levy: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Lo: 58%, Dave Levy: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Levy: 1,099, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Tom Lo: 1,955, level confidence: 58%.