Barry Sturgeon v Brian Owers (Tue 16 Mar 2010)
Match won by Barry Sturgeon. Result: 15-8,15-6,11-15,15-8.
Starting level for
Barry Sturgeon:
1,596, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Brian Owers:
1,208, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Barry Sturgeon to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Brian Owers.
Barry Sturgeon won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barry Sturgeon played
34% better than Brian Owers in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barry Sturgeon actually played at a level of
1,605 and Brian Owers at a level of
1,201. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barry Sturgeon changes to +0.4% and Brian Owers changes to -0.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barry Sturgeon becomes +0.4% and for Brian Owers becomes -0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Barry Sturgeon is 0% and for Brian Owers is -0.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barry Sturgeon: 94%, Brian Owers: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barry Sturgeon: 94%, Brian Owers: 86%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Barry Sturgeon:
1,598, level confidence: 94%.
Final level for Brian Owers:
1,202, level confidence: 86%.