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Dave McMahon v Alan Tierney (Wed 27 Jun 2012)

Match won by Dave McMahon. Result: 15-10,15-13,15-9.

Starting level for Dave McMahon: 1,627, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Tierney: 1,368, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Dave McMahon to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Alan Tierney.

Dave McMahon won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave McMahon played 45% better than Alan Tierney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave McMahon actually played at a level of 1,799 and Alan Tierney at a level of 1,237. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave McMahon changes to +9.6% and Alan Tierney changes to -9.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave McMahon becomes +5.1% and for Alan Tierney becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Dave McMahon is +3.3% and for Alan Tierney is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave McMahon: 85%, Alan Tierney: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave McMahon: 77%, Alan Tierney: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave McMahon: 1,679, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Alan Tierney: 1,319, level confidence: 76%.