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Kevin Fagg v Paul Ryan (Tue 16 Mar 2010)

Match won by Kevin Fagg. Result: 15-13,15-13,15-6.

Starting level for Kevin Fagg: 1,853, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Ryan: 1,944, level confidence: 57%.
Paul Ryan to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Kevin Fagg.

Kevin Fagg won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kevin Fagg played 45% better than Paul Ryan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kevin Fagg actually played at a level of 2,288 and Paul Ryan at a level of 1,574. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kevin Fagg changes to +17% and Paul Ryan changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kevin Fagg becomes +7.7% and for Paul Ryan becomes -9.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Kevin Fagg is +5.8% and for Paul Ryan is -7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Ryan is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kevin Fagg: 87%, Paul Ryan: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kevin Fagg: 70%, Paul Ryan: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kevin Fagg: 1,958, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Paul Ryan: 1,849, level confidence: 61%.