Matt Inglis v Alan Howell (Tue 03 Jul 2012)
Match won by Matt Inglis. Result: 15-10,12-15,15-11,13-15,15-9.
Starting level for
Matt Inglis:
2,140, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Alan Howell:
1,499, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Matt Inglis to win as he is currently playing
43% better than Alan Howell.
Matt Inglis won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Inglis played
12% better than Alan Howell in this match.
As Matt Inglis has played below his allowed range at 1,807, his level reduction is 8% before damping. On the assumption that Matt Inglis would normally have been playing at level 2,057 (based on typical behaviour), Alan Howell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Inglis changes to -6.6% and Alan Howell changes to +7.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Inglis becomes -3.6% and for Alan Howell becomes +4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Matt Inglis is -2.3% and for Alan Howell is +3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Inglis: 81%, Alan Howell: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Inglis: 72%, Alan Howell: 77%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Matt Inglis:
2,088, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Alan Howell:
1,541, level confidence: 77%.