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Jack Fowler v Simon Gray (Wed 17 Mar 2010)

Match won by Jack Fowler. Result: 12-15,15-9,13-15,17-15,15-12.

Starting level for Jack Fowler: 2,148, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Simon Gray: 1,753, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Jack Fowler to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Simon Gray.

Jack Fowler won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Fowler played 10% better than Simon Gray in this match.

As Jack Fowler has played below his allowed range at 2,003, his level reduction is 4.1% before damping. On the assumption that Jack Fowler would normally have been playing at level 2,119 (based on typical behaviour), Simon Gray played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.9%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Fowler changes to -3.7% and Simon Gray changes to +3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Fowler becomes -2.5% and for Simon Gray becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Jack Fowler is -1.9% and for Simon Gray is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Fowler: 82%, Simon Gray: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Fowler: 78%, Simon Gray: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Fowler: 2,105, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Simon Gray: 1,785, level confidence: 86%.