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Gary Spindler v Michael Broadbent (Tue 03 Jul 2012)

Match won by Gary Spindler. Result: 15-8,15-2,15-7.

Starting level for Gary Spindler: 1,652, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Michael Broadbent: 1,476, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Gary Spindler to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Michael Broadbent.

Gary Spindler won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 165% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gary Spindler played 165% better than Michael Broadbent in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gary Spindler actually played at a level of 2,541 and Michael Broadbent at a level of 960. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gary Spindler changes to +50% and Michael Broadbent changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gary Spindler becomes +19.6% and for Michael Broadbent becomes -9.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Gary Spindler is +13% and for Michael Broadbent is -5.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gary Spindler is limited to +10% and Michael Broadbent is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gary Spindler: 65%, Michael Broadbent: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gary Spindler: 42%, Michael Broadbent: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gary Spindler: 1,814, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Michael Broadbent: 1,404, level confidence: 60%.