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James Nield v Andrew Clark (Wed 17 Mar 2010)

Match won by James Nield. Result: 15-13,15-10,15-12.

Starting level for James Nield: 2,333, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Andrew Clark: 1,415, level confidence: 49%.
James Nield to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Andrew Clark.

James Nield won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Nield played 37% better than Andrew Clark in this match.

As James Nield has played below his allowed range at 1,964, his level reduction is 1.1% before damping. On the assumption that James Nield would normally have been playing at level 2,172 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Clark played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Nield changes to -0.7% and Andrew Clark changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Nield becomes -0.5% and for Andrew Clark becomes +3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for James Nield is -0.4% and for Andrew Clark is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Nield: 76%, Andrew Clark: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Nield: 69%, Andrew Clark: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Nield: 2,320, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Andrew Clark: 1,447, level confidence: 64%.