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Paul Gandolfo v Anton Snell (Tue 03 Jul 2012)

Match won by Paul Gandolfo. Result: 15-13,15-9,16-14.

Starting level for Paul Gandolfo: 1,223, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Anton Snell: 954, level confidence: 61%.
Paul Gandolfo to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Anton Snell.

Paul Gandolfo won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gandolfo played 37% better than Anton Snell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gandolfo actually played at a level of 1,263 and Anton Snell at a level of 924. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 2.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo changes to +2.9% and Anton Snell changes to -2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo becomes +2.6% and for Anton Snell becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo is +1.7% and for Anton Snell is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gandolfo: 78%, Anton Snell: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gandolfo: 76%, Anton Snell: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gandolfo: 1,242, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Anton Snell: 935, level confidence: 75%.