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Robert Dadds v Pete Burdett (Thu 18 Mar 2010)

Match won by Robert Dadds. Result: 15-3,15-4,15-0.

Starting level for Robert Dadds: 3,343, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Pete Burdett: 1,890, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Robert Dadds to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Pete Burdett.

Robert Dadds won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 543% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Dadds played 543% better than Pete Burdett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Dadds actually played at a level of 6,373 and Pete Burdett at a level of 991. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 91% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 62% and 62% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Dadds changes to +62% and Pete Burdett changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Dadds becomes +18.4% and for Pete Burdett becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Robert Dadds is +14% and for Pete Burdett is -8.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Robert Dadds is limited to +10% and Pete Burdett is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Dadds: 66%, Pete Burdett: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Dadds: 34%, Pete Burdett: 45%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robert Dadds: 3,672, level confidence: 34%.
Final level for Pete Burdett: 1,810, level confidence: 45%.