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Cesar Ramirez-Molina v Scott Gregory (Thu 18 Mar 2010)

Match won by Cesar Ramirez-Molina. Result: 11-15,19-17,7-15,17-15,15-7.

Starting level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,205, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Scott Gregory: 1,509, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Scott Gregory to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Cesar Ramirez-Molina.

Cesar Ramirez-Molina won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Ramirez-Molina played 8% better than Scott Gregory in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Ramirez-Molina actually played at a level of 1,398 and Scott Gregory at a level of 1,301. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina changes to +14% and Scott Gregory changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina becomes +7.8% and for Scott Gregory becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina is +5.9% and for Scott Gregory is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 84%, Scott Gregory: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 72%, Scott Gregory: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,274, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Scott Gregory: 1,439, level confidence: 77%.