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Geoff Taylor v Guillermo Pedernera (Thu 18 Mar 2010)

Match won by Geoff Taylor. Result: 11-15,15-13,14-16,15-7,15-11.

Starting level for Geoff Taylor: 3,127, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Guillermo Pedernera: 2,451, level confidence: 68%.
Geoff Taylor to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Guillermo Pedernera.

Geoff Taylor won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Geoff Taylor played 11% better than Guillermo Pedernera in this match.

As Geoff Taylor has played below his allowed range at 2,850, his level reduction is 5% before damping. On the assumption that Geoff Taylor would normally have been playing at level 3,066 (based on typical behaviour), Guillermo Pedernera played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Geoff Taylor changes to -4% and Guillermo Pedernera changes to +5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Geoff Taylor becomes -2.4% and for Guillermo Pedernera becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Geoff Taylor is -1.8% and for Guillermo Pedernera is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Geoff Taylor: 86%, Guillermo Pedernera: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Geoff Taylor: 80%, Guillermo Pedernera: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Geoff Taylor: 3,068, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Guillermo Pedernera: 2,503, level confidence: 77%.