Dan Soar v Chris Lynam (Thu 18 Mar 2010)
Match won by Dan Soar. Result: 15-5,9-15,15-13,15-13.
Starting level for
Dan Soar:
2,515, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Chris Lynam:
1,914, level confidence: 69%.
Dan Soar to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Chris Lynam.
Dan Soar won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Soar played
22% better than Chris Lynam in this match.
As Dan Soar has played below his allowed range at 2,363, his level reduction is 0.8% before damping. On the assumption that Dan Soar would normally have been playing at level 2,454 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Lynam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Soar changes to -0.7% and Chris Lynam changes to +1.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Soar becomes -0.5% and for Chris Lynam becomes +1.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Dan Soar is -0.4% and for Chris Lynam is +0.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Soar: 74%, Chris Lynam: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Soar: 71%, Chris Lynam: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Dan Soar:
2,502, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Chris Lynam:
1,929, level confidence: 80%.