Paul Craigen v John Chesters (Wed 04 Jul 2012)
Match won by John Chesters. Result: 15-12,7-15,12-15,7-15.
Starting level for
Paul Craigen:
983, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
John Chesters:
1,027, level confidence: 66%.
John Chesters to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Paul Craigen.
John Chesters won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Chesters played
30% better than Paul Craigen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Chesters actually played at a level of
1,144 and Paul Craigen at a level of
882. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Chesters changes to +11% and Paul Craigen changes to -10.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Chesters becomes +6.9% and for Paul Craigen becomes -6.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for John Chesters is +4.5% and for Paul Craigen is -4.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Chesters: 81%, Paul Craigen: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Chesters: 73%, Paul Craigen: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Craigen:
942, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for John Chesters:
1,072, level confidence: 73%.