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Andrew Eilfield v Eamonn Price (Thu 05 Jul 2012)

Match won by Eamonn Price. Result: 15-9,12-15,12-15,8-15.

Starting level for Andrew Eilfield: 3,549, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Eamonn Price: 6,051, level confidence: 70%.
Eamonn Price to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Andrew Eilfield.

Eamonn Price won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eamonn Price played 22% better than Andrew Eilfield in this match.

As Eamonn Price has played below his allowed range at 4,651, his level reduction is 7.7% before damping. On the assumption that Eamonn Price would normally have been playing at level 5,584 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Eilfield played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 10.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eamonn Price changes to -4.7% and Andrew Eilfield changes to +10.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eamonn Price becomes -2.2% and for Andrew Eilfield becomes +4.2%.

Given Eamonn Price's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Eamonn Price is -1.3% and for Andrew Eilfield is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eamonn Price: 83%, Andrew Eilfield: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eamonn Price: 70%, Andrew Eilfield: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Eilfield: 3,641, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Eamonn Price: 5,965, level confidence: 70%.