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Daniel McGinn v Mike Richards (Thu 18 Mar 2010)

Match won by Daniel McGinn. Result: 12-15,15-4,15-10,15-8.

Starting level for Daniel McGinn: 2,949, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Mike Richards: 1,934, level confidence: 70%.
Daniel McGinn to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Mike Richards.

Daniel McGinn won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel McGinn played 35% better than Mike Richards in this match.

As Daniel McGinn has played below his allowed range at 2,610, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Daniel McGinn would normally have been playing at level 2,797 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Richards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel McGinn changes to 0% and Mike Richards changes to +2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel McGinn becomes -0.2% and for Mike Richards becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Daniel McGinn is 0% and for Mike Richards is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel McGinn: 80%, Mike Richards: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel McGinn: 75%, Mike Richards: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel McGinn: 2,941, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Mike Richards: 1,961, level confidence: 79%.