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Peter Foley v Marvin Rust (Thu 05 Jul 2012)

Match won by Marvin Rust. Result: 15-11,12-15,10-15,15-11,8-15.

Starting level for Peter Foley: 2,713, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marvin Rust: 2,258, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Peter Foley to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Marvin Rust.

Marvin Rust won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marvin Rust played 10% better than Peter Foley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marvin Rust actually played at a level of 2,601 and Peter Foley at a level of 2,355. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marvin Rust changes to +12% and Peter Foley changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marvin Rust becomes +5.6% and for Peter Foley becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Marvin Rust is +3.6% and for Peter Foley is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marvin Rust: 91%, Peter Foley: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marvin Rust: 79%, Peter Foley: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Foley: 2,614, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Marvin Rust: 2,336, level confidence: 79%.