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Gareth Jones v Dave Levy (Thu 18 Mar 2010)

Match won by Dave Levy. Result: 9-15,15-6,12-15,11-15.

Starting level for Gareth Jones: 1,253, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Levy: 1,099, level confidence: 63%.
Gareth Jones to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Dave Levy.

Dave Levy won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Levy played 20% better than Gareth Jones in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Levy actually played at a level of 1,283 and Gareth Jones at a level of 1,073. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Levy changes to +16% and Gareth Jones changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Levy becomes +8.7% and for Gareth Jones becomes -7.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Dave Levy is +6.6% and for Gareth Jones is -5.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Levy: 79%, Gareth Jones: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Levy: 68%, Gareth Jones: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gareth Jones: 1,192, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Dave Levy: 1,169, level confidence: 68%.