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Paul Carter v Phil Power (Tue 10 Jul 2012)

Match won by Phil Power. Result: 10-15,11-15,8-15.

Starting level for Paul Carter: 1,068, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Phil Power: 2,161, level confidence: 68%.
Phil Power to win as he is currently playing 102% better than Paul Carter.

Phil Power won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Power played 55% better than Paul Carter in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Phil Power was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,570 and 2,161 without affecting his level.

In this case, Phil Power played at level 1,768 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Phil Power would normally have been playing at level 1,886 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Carter played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Power changes to 0% and Paul Carter changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Power becomes 0% and for Paul Carter becomes +3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Phil Power is 0% and for Paul Carter is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Power: 82%, Paul Carter: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Power: 72%, Paul Carter: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Carter: 1,092, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Phil Power: 2,158, level confidence: 72%.