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David Lloyd v Jan Brynjolffssen (Tue 10 Jul 2012)

Match won by Jan Brynjolffssen. Result: 12-15,11-15,9-15.

Starting level for David Lloyd: 1,049, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,559, level confidence: 66%.
Jan Brynjolffssen to win as he is currently playing 49% better than David Lloyd.

Jan Brynjolffssen won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Brynjolffssen played 45% better than David Lloyd in this match.

In this case, Jan Brynjolffssen played at level 1,525 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, David Lloyd is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Brynjolffssen: 81%, David Lloyd: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Brynjolffssen: 80%, David Lloyd: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Lloyd: 1,047, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,557, level confidence: 80%.