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Julie Ann Pegram v Martin Miller (Tue 10 Jul 2012)

Match won by Julie Ann Pegram. Result: 15-4,15-5,15-10.

Starting level for Julie Ann Pegram: 915, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Martin Miller: 652, level confidence: 67%.
Julie Ann Pegram to win as she is currently playing 40% better than Martin Miller.

Julie Ann Pegram won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julie Ann Pegram played 137% better than Martin Miller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julie Ann Pegram actually played at a level of 1,189 and Martin Miller at a level of 502. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julie Ann Pegram changes to +25% and Martin Miller changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julie Ann Pegram becomes +13.3% and for Martin Miller becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Julie Ann Pegram is +8.7% and for Martin Miller is -7.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Martin Miller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julie Ann Pegram: 80%, Martin Miller: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julie Ann Pegram: 62%, Martin Miller: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julie Ann Pegram: 993, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Martin Miller: 620, level confidence: 63%.