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Ross Proudfoot v Jonathan Fuller (Thu 07 Oct 2010)

Match won by Ross Proudfoot. Result: 15-12,15-10,11-15,15-13.

Starting level for Ross Proudfoot: 2,419, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jonathan Fuller: 2,789, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Jonathan Fuller to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Ross Proudfoot.

Ross Proudfoot won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ross Proudfoot played 21% better than Jonathan Fuller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ross Proudfoot actually played at a level of 2,854 and Jonathan Fuller at a level of 2,364. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ross Proudfoot changes to +15% and Jonathan Fuller changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ross Proudfoot becomes +6.5% and for Jonathan Fuller becomes -6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ross Proudfoot is +4.8% and for Jonathan Fuller is -4.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ross Proudfoot: 87%, Jonathan Fuller: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ross Proudfoot: 74%, Jonathan Fuller: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ross Proudfoot: 2,532, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Jonathan Fuller: 2,656, level confidence: 71%.