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Jago Nardelli v Marvin Rust (Thu 07 Oct 2010)

Match won by Jago Nardelli. Result: 15-10,15-7,15-1.

Starting level for Jago Nardelli: 5,811, level confidence: 25%.
Starting level for Marvin Rust: 2,534, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Jago Nardelli to win as he is currently playing 129% better than Marvin Rust.

Jago Nardelli won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jago Nardelli played 150% better than Marvin Rust in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jago Nardelli actually played at a level of 6,067 and Marvin Rust at a level of 2,427. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 2.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jago Nardelli changes to +2.9% and Marvin Rust changes to -0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jago Nardelli becomes +1.6% and for Marvin Rust becomes -0.6%.

Given Jago Nardelli's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jago Nardelli is +1.2% and for Marvin Rust is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jago Nardelli: 50%, Marvin Rust: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jago Nardelli: 48%, Marvin Rust: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jago Nardelli: 5,871, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Marvin Rust: 2,518, level confidence: 86%.